Democrats Worry Trump May Outperform Polls Again: The Memo

Democrats are upbeat about Vice President Harris’s debate performance and rising poll numbers, but they remain concerned. The fear is that former President Trump might surpass his polling projections once more.

Historical Polling Issues

Trump has a track record of outperforming polls. Pollster Celinda Lake highlights this issue, noting that Trump appeals to previously non-voting demographics. With battleground states closely contested, Democrats are wary of a repeat of past polling surprises.

Polling Challenges

Pollsters struggle with turnout predictions. For instance, Trump’s 2016 and 2020 poll numbers were underestimated, particularly in key states like Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump’s actual vote was significantly higher than predicted, and similar discrepancies occurred in 2020.

Current Polls and Debate Impact

As of Thursday, polls show a tight race with few states having significant leads. Harris’s debate performance might have shifted some numbers, but new polls offer mixed results. Despite Harris’s national lead in some polls, the race remains highly competitive.

Looking Ahead

With the election approaching, Democrats remain cautious. The closeness of the race and past polling inaccuracies keep the outcome uncertain.