Pollster Nate Silver warns that a 50/50 forecast for the presidential election suggests people should start planning for the possibility of former President Trump returning to the White House this November. Silver’s model recently indicated that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump for the first time since late August, with a 49% to 46.3% advantage.

He emphasized the importance of making contingency plans, stating, “While you don’t need to stockpile supplies, consider your strategy for protecting American institutions in the event of a Trump second term or a similarly effective Republican in future elections.” Silver advised liberal donors to focus their funding on safeguarding institutions rather than simply donating to Harris, who he believes has sufficient campaign resources.

Though he expressed concern over a potential Trump victory, Silver cautioned against framing a second Trump term as an outright threat to democracy, suggesting that such a narrative may alienate voters. He praised Harris’s positive demeanor but questioned whether she has retained too many Biden staffers who supported his continued candidacy.

In this uncertain political landscape, Silver’s insights highlight the need for proactive strategies to navigate the potential challenges ahead.