Recent polling has provided new insights into the White House race, particularly following the September 10 debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. Over 20 swing-state polls conducted after the debate have been released, revealing a mixed landscape.
Harris is generally viewed as having performed better in the debate, but the extent to which this has shifted the race remains unclear. Notably, many of the recent polls do not capture public reaction to Trump’s second apparent assassination attempt, which occurred at his Florida golf club.
Here are the key takeaways from the latest polling data:
Harris Shows Slight Advantage
Overall, the latest polls seem to favor Harris slightly more than Trump. A Morning Consult poll shows her leading by 6 percentage points—her largest lead in their surveys—while other polls, such as those from ABC News/Ipsos and Yahoo News/YouGov, indicate leads of 4 and 5 points, respectively.
In swing states, Harris has also shown strong results. For instance, a Quinnipiac University poll indicates she leads by 5 points in Pennsylvania, and a Marist College poll reveals the same margin in Michigan. According to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, Harris now has a 55 percent chance of winning in November, although this reflects a very close race overall.
Trump Remains Hopeful
Despite a slight trend toward Harris, Trump and his supporters have reasons to remain optimistic. A New York Times/Siena College poll shows the race tied nationally among likely voters, with Trump ahead by 1 point among all registered voters. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll gives Harris a narrow 2-point lead.
In swing states, recent polls reveal mixed results for Trump. For example, Emerson College surveys show him ahead by 1 point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, indicating he could potentially regain parts of the Democrats’ stronghold. A Marist poll also shows the race tied in Pennsylvania, contrasting with other polls that suggest Harris has a 5-point lead.
The Complexity of Polling
Pollsters caution against interpreting survey results as definitive, given the inherent margins of error and the “noise” that can arise from various polling variables. Some findings have raised eyebrows, such as differing leads for Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that don’t align with historical trends.
A Very Close Race
Ultimately, the race remains extremely competitive, resembling a coin flip with less than 50 days to go. Polling averages indicate that Harris holds slim leads in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, while the margins in other battlegrounds are razor-thin.
Several factors could still influence these dynamics, including extensive campaign advertising, Trump’s history of outperforming polls, and the potential for Harris to gain support as the first female Democratic nominee in a post-Roe v. Wade election.
Key Issues Remain
The major issues of this election cycle appear to be consistent, with abortion emerging as a significant advantage for Democrats. A New York Times/Siena College poll reveals that voters trust Harris over Trump on abortion by a 13-point margin. Conversely, Trump holds a 12-point edge on immigration and a 13-point lead regarding economic issues—topics that are crucial for voter concerns.
